This Week’s Market Commentary

This week brings us the release of five relevant economic reports along with an FOMC meeting and two Treasury auctions for the markets to digest. A couple of the week’s reports are considered highly important, as is of course the FOMC meeting. There is nothing of relevance to mortgage rates being released or taking place tomorrow, so all of the week’s events are scheduled over four days.

The first thing on the calendar will come from the Commerce Department early Tuesday morning when they post February’s Retail Sales data. This data is extremely important to the financial markets because it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, data that is related usually has a big impact on the markets. This month’s report is expected to show an increase in sales of approximately 1.0%. If it reveals a larger than expected increase, the bond market will likely fall and mortgage rates will move higher as it would indicate a stronger level of economic growth than many had thought. If it reveals a much smaller than expected increase, I expect to see bond prices rise and mortgage rates improve Tuesday morning.

Also Tuesday is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. This is a single-day meeting that will adjourn at 2:15 PM ET. It is widely believed that the Fed will make no change to key short-term interest rates at this meeting, but the post-meeting statement will be watched closely for any change in their feelings about the economy or any other moves they may make, such as QE3. Generally speaking, the bond market wants to hear that inflation is not an immediate concern and that key rates will be kept at current levels for a long time. An announcement of another round of Quantitative Easing to help keep long-term interest rates low could fuel a bond rally.

There are two Treasury auctions this week that could potentially affect mortgage rates. The first is the 10-year Treasury Note auction Tuesday and the 30-year bond sale will be held Wednesday. Results of both sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET on the sale days. If investor demand was high, we may see bonds rally during afternoon trading as it would indicate that investors still have an appetite for longer-term securities. However, weak demand in the sale could lead to selling and an increase in mortgage rates.

Wednesday also has a speaking engagement by Fed Chairman Bernanke. He will be speaking to the Independent Community Bankers Association in Nashville at 9:00 AM ET. I don’t believe he will say anything that will be a market mover, especially the morning after the FOMC meeting. However, market participants always watch his words closely so any surprises will have an impact on the markets and possibly mortgage pricing.

The Labor Department will post February’s Producer Price Index (PPI) early Thursday morning. This important index measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two portions of the index- the overall reading and the core data. The core data is more important and watched more closely because it excludes more volatile food and energy (including gasoline) prices. If the index shows a large increase, inflation concerns will rise, making long-term investments such as mortgage-related bonds less attractive to investors. This would lead to higher mortgage rates Thursday morning. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.5% increase in the overall reading and a 0.2% increase in the core data.

Friday has the remaining three economic reports scheduled. February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released early Friday morning, which measures inflationary pressures at the very important consumer level of the economy. Its results can definitely have a huge impact on the financial markets, especially long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds. It is expected to show a 0.4% increase in the overall index and a 0.2% rise in the more important core data. If we see weaker than expected readings, bond prices should rise and mortgage rates would likely fall Friday.

Friday’s next report will come mid-morning when February’s Industrial Production report is posted. This report measures manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is expected to show a 0.5% increase from January’s level. A decline would be considered extremely favorable news for bonds and mortgage rates because it would indicate manufacturing sector weakness and a broader economic recovery is more difficult if manufacturing activity is slipping.

The week’s final piece of data is the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment for March just before 10:00 AM ET Friday. This index gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If confidence is rising, then consumers are more apt to make large purchases. This helps fuel consumer spending and economic growth. A drop in confidence will probably hurt the stock markets and boost bond prices, leading to lower mortgage rates, assuming the CPI matches forecasts. Bad news for bonds and mortgage rates would be rising confidence. It is expected to show a reading of 76.0, which would be an increase from February’s final reading 75.3.

Overall, look for Tuesday or Friday to be the most important day of the week due to the importance of those day’s reports and the FOMC meeting. Tomorrow will likely be the least active day for mortgage rates, but we could see plenty of movement in the markets and mortgage pricing several days this week. Therefore, please be attentive to the markets and maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate.

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Credit Bureaus Selling Your Info: How to Opt Out

Written in our customer agreements with borrowers is a promise that our company would never release personal or financial information. Unfortunately, credit bureaus do not abide by these same rules.
The credit bureaus are the culprits on trigger leads which can cause solicitation for anyone borrowing for a home loan because they sell the leads to companies.  It’s not the vendors (LandSafe, IR, etc).  Unfortunately, we are at the mercy of the bureaus on this deal. However, there are simple steps you can take to opt out of your information being sold by credit bureaus.

How to opt out of trigger leads

There are two ways to opt-out of trigger lead programs and ensure your information is not sold.
1. Complete and submit an online form at www.optoutprescreen.com. This method stops trigger leads for five years.

2. Complete a separate form at the same Web site (www.optoutprescreen.com) and then print, sign and mail a letter generated by that form to confirm your opt-out request. This method stops trigger leads permanently.
Both of the opt-out methods take five days to become effective, so if you don’t want your information to be sold, you need to opt-out at least five days before you make a specific inquiry.

If your information is already in the trigger lead pool, you may continue to receive telephone calls and mailings for some time after you elect to opt out.

Opting out via one of these methods is highly recommended for your privacy.

Top Five Tips to Increase Your Home’s Appraisal Value

The importance of the appraisal in a real estate transaction can’t be overestimated. An appraisal can completely kill a deal if it does not turn out well.

The Wall Street Journal recently posted an article with tips on upping your homes value during an appraisal, and here are some of our top picks:

                                                                    1. Spruce up the house

While a couple of dishes in the sink won’t make a difference, there are quick fixes that do. Overgrown landscaping should be trimmed, and things like marks on walls and stained carpets should be cleaned. These affect the home’s overall value in appraisal, according to the WSJ.

2. Curb appeal matters

Take the time to mow the lawn, trim the hedges, and pull out any weeds. A nice-looking yard is not only a great first impression, but it can offset any nearby foreclosed properties.

3. Note the neighborhood improvements

Location, location, location! Make note of any changes to the neighborhood that are positive, such as a new playground or a Whole Foods nearby.

4. Keep the $500 rule in mind
According to the WSJ, appraisers often value a home in $500 increments. This means that if there is a repair over $500 that can or ought to be made, do it, or it could count against the property’s value.

5. Maintain a list of all updates to home
All updates, major and minor, to the home should be listed. “Itemize each update with the approximate date and approximate cost,” recommends Matthew George, the chief appraiser of Eagle Appraisals Inc. Remember to include things the appraiser might not notice, such as insulation and roof updates.

Common First Time Homebuyer Mistakes

Many first-time homebuyers make simple and common mistakes that are easily avoidable.

They face multiple challenges anyway, such as finding the right home, the right agent, getting approved for a mortgage, and staying within their budget. By avoiding these common mistakes, the process of buying a home can be much less stressful.

                                                                 1. Overlooking extra costs of homeownership

While some see themselves as ready for homeownership once they can afford a mortgage payment, it is important to remember the other fees that come along with owning a home. Property taxes, home owners association fees, maintenance, higher water and electrical bills, and property insurance are among the extra costs of owning a home, and should be calculated into your budget.

 2. Not getting preapproved
It is very important to get preapproved for a loan before you go out searching for the perfect place. That way, you will be making financially sound decisions versus unrealistic emotional ones as to what you can afford.

3. Spending your entire savings on your down payment
This is one of the most common mistakes first time homebuyers make. Homebuyers who put 20 percent or more down don’t have to pay for mortgage insurance when getting a conventional mortgage, which often translates into substantial savings on the monthly payment. However, it is smarter to keep your rainy day savings intact instead.

Why Real Estate Agents are at Risk for Theft and How to Prevent It

Open houses are becoming targets for thefts more often, and real estate agents are at risk of losing valuable items, as are the homeowners.

As a real estate agent, you’re inviting the public to a property, which is an invitation to anyone, from thieves to those who might want to harm you.

A common tactic thieves use at open houses is teamwork and distraction. Linda Powers of Specialists Real Estate in Las Vegas told her story of such an encounter on Realtor.org.

“Last year I was holding an open house on my listing, and four women walked in and said they were sisters and looking for a home for their mother. Two of them walked out to the yard while I stayed with the others.

“The two in the yard then called me outside because they had a few questions. When we walked back in, the gals stayed a little longer talking and asking more questions about the house.

“It wasn’t until the next morning that I noticed my debit card and a few dollars missing. They managed to spend a few hundred dollars before I canceled the card. I found out later that these ladies had been making the rounds around Las Vegas doing the same to other agents while sitting on their open houses.

“Needless to say, I now keep my wallet in the trunk of my car. It also helps to do open houses in twos, especially when the home is lived in and has things to steal. This economy is bringing out the worst in people.”

SAFETY TIPS

There are preventative actions, such as those mentioned by Linda, that will help you protect yourself from theft.

Promote security in your advertisements.
When you advertise the open house, note that identification will be required at the front door and video surveillance will be in use. “The bad guys will be less likely to show up,” Siciliano says.

Partner up.
When would-be assailants see two people at the front door, they’ll be less likely to go in. (Read one agent’s story how the buddy system protected her).

Introduce yourself to neighbors.
Let them know you’ll be showing the house so others know that you are there.

Watch for patterns.
At an open house, note any patterns in arrivals, particularly near the end of the open house. One common scam: Thieves come near the end of the open house, working as a team. They have “buyers” distract the agent as others steal valuables in the home. (Read what happened to one sales associate.)
Stow away your valuables.

Never leave your purse, laptop, or wallet unattended on the counter in plain view. Keep them in the trunk of your car. However, always keep your cell phone on you so you can call for help if you need to. Also, before the open house, tell your clients to put away all of their valuables, prescription drugs, and mail.

Seven Financial New Year’s Resolutions to Keep

Small changes in your financial behavior can add up to big savings over the long term, and New Year’s is a perfect time to make some financial resolutions.

DailyFinance.com has listed seven great resolutions that are simple and will fatten up your wallet in 2012. Click here to see the full list; a shortened version is below:

1. Get healthy by losing weight and quitting smoking, which can lower your insurance premiums.

2. Be a smart shopper by using sales, coupons, and programs and apps like LivingSocial and Groupon to find good deals.

3. Simplify your day to day finances with things such as online automatic bill pay.

4. Increase your financial literacy and educate yourself about things you don’t understand.

5. Be prepared and start an emergency savings fund in case something unexpected happens.

6. Pay down debt and try to pay more than the minimum each month.

7. Create a basic household budget that makes sense and is easy to follow.

This Week’s Market Commentary

This week bring us the release of only three monthly reports that are relevant to the bond market and mortgage rates, but two of them are considered to be highly important.

In addition to those three reports, we also will get the minutes from the last FOMC meeting that may influence the markets and possibly mortgage rates. The financial markets are closed today due to the New Year’s Day holiday.

The first report is the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index for December late tomorrow morning. This highly important index measures manufacturer sentiment. A reading above 50 means that more surveyed manufacturing executives felt that business improved during the month than those who felt it had worsened.

That indicates manufacturing sector strength rather than contraction. Analysts are currently expecting to see a 53.4 reading in this month’s release, meaning that sentiment strengthened from November’s 52.7. A smaller reading will be good news for the bond market and mortgage shoppers, while a higher than expected reading could lead to higher mortgage rates tomorrow morning as it would point towards economic strength.

Also tomorrow is the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. This will give market participants insight to the Fed’s thinking and concerns regarding the economy, inflation and monetary policy. It is one of those pieces of information that may cause a great deal of volatility in the markets or be a non-factor, depending on what the minutes show. They will be released at 2:00 PM ET, so they won’t affect the markets or mortgage rates until afternoon hours.

The Commerce Department will post November’s Factory Orders data late Wednesday morning. This data gives us a fairly important measurement of manufacturing sector strength. It is similar to the Durable Goods Orders release that was posted late last week, except this report includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. Durable goods are items that are expected to last three or more years such as electronics and autos. Examples of non-durable goods are food and clothing. Analysts are expecting to see an increase of 2.1% in new orders. This report generally does not have a huge impact on the bond market or mortgage rates, but it can influence bond trading enough to create a minor change in rates. The smaller the increase, the better the news for mortgage rates.

The final report of the week comes Friday morning when the Labor Department will post December’s employment figures. The Employment report is arguably the most important monthly release we see. It gives us the national unemployment rate, the number of jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings, which is a key measure of wage inflation. Rising unemployment, a decline in payrolls and earnings would be ideal news for the bond market.

Current forecasts call for a 0.1% rise from November’s unemployment rate of 8.6%, 150,000 new jobs added to the economy and an increase in earnings of 0.2%. If we see weaker than expected results, mortgage rates should improve Friday. However, stronger than expected readings will likely raise optimism about the economy, pushing mortgage rates sharply higher.

Overall, the key data of the week will be Friday’s Employment report, but look for tomorrow and Wednesday to be active due to the economic data and FOMC minutes scheduled. If they give us favorable results, mortgage rates will likely move lower for the week. But if not, we can expect to see mortgage rates move higher on the week.